An Independent Benchmark for California’s Wine-Grape Economy
The California Wine Market Index™ (CWMI) is an independent, data-driven benchmark designed to measure long-term changes in California’s wine-grape market using publicly available statewide production, purchased-tonnage, and grower-price data.
MARKET SNAPSHOT – THE CURRENT SIGNAL
Purchased Volume — 1.96M tons | −13.9%
Bearing Acreage — 510K acres | −5.6%
Average Grower Price — $1,122/ton | +1.8%
Red Share — 49.3% | −2.1 pts
White Share — 50.7% | +2.1 pts
The 2025 snapshot shows a market under continued pressure. Purchased grape volume fell 13.9% to 1.96 million tons, substantially faster than the 5.6% decline in bearing acreage. At the same time, the statewide average grower price increased 1.8%, while the purchased-grape mix shifted modestly toward white varieties. Together, the indicators suggest that commercial demand is contracting faster than productive vineyard capacity is adjusting.
CWMI SIGNAL: Demand contraction remains the dominant market pressure.
CALIFORNIA WINE MARKET INDEX™
78.04
↓ WEAKENING
-11.8%
CWMI YoY CHANGE
2024–2025
1,962,614
PURCHASED VOLUME
California Statewide
$985.61
GROWER PRICE
Statewide Weighted Average
Per Ton
REAL PRICE INDEX
92.05 ↓
−6.0% YoY
Grower Pricing Power
PURCHASED VOLUME INDEX
71.55 ↓
−13.9% YoY
Commercial Market Activity
REAL COMMERCIAL VALUE
$1.42B
−19.0% YoY
Inflation-Adjusted Market Scale
THE MARKET IN A SENTENCE
California’s wine-grape economy is confronting a problem that price alone cannot solve: fewer grapes are finding commercial buyers.
RED / WHITE MARKET INTELLIGENCE
RED MARKET
82.88 ↓
WEAKENING
2025 Market Index
REAL PRICE INDEX: 108.72
VOLUME INDEX: 62.91
REAL COMMERCIAL VALUE: $897.2M
WHITE MARKET
73.37 ↓
WEAKENING
2025 Market Index
REAL PRICE INDEX: 75.29
VOLUME INDEX: 82.25
REAL COMMERCIAL VALUE: $522.2M
THE TAKEAWAY
WHAT IS DRIVING THE MARKET?
2025 is primarily a volume-led contraction. Red and white purchased volumes both declined year over year, while real prices also softened. Red remains economically dominant because of its price premium, but its long-run volume position is weaker than white’s.
PRICE
↓
MODERATE DECLINE
VOLUME
↓↓
MAJOR DECLINE
COMMERCIAL VALUE
↓↓
SHARP CONTRACTION
MARKET PERSPECTIVES
Explore the forces behind the CWMI signal—from changes in California’s productive vineyard capacity to downstream wine demand and international export conditions.
VINEYARD ACREAGE
510,000 bearing acres
−5.6% YoY
Bearing acreage is declining, but purchased grape volume is falling faster.
WINE DEMAND
203.5M cases
−17.6% from 2018 peak
California wine shipment volume remains materially below its 2018 peak, while grape purchasing has contracted more sharply.
EXPORTS
202M liters
−20.3% YoY
Export volume contracted sharply in 2025, adding international pressure to already weak conditions in California’s wine-grape market.
Red remains California’s economic heavyweight; white carries more physical volume. In 2025, both weakened—but they arrived there by different routes.
California Wine Market Index historical trend from 2000 through 2025 showing major market inflection points, the 2000 benchmark level, the 2018 historical peak, and the 2025 CWMI value of 78.04. Figure 1. The California Wine Market Index™ has experienced multiple market cycles since 2000, culminating in a 2025 value of 78.04, an 11.8% decline from 2024.
The market-period labels shown in the chart provide descriptive context for broad movements in the CWMI over time. They are intended as interpretive reference points and do not represent independently defined economic cycles or forecasts.
2025 Market Summary
The California Wine Market Index™ (CWMI) closed at 78.04 in 2025, the lowest value in the verified 2000–2025 historical series. The Index declined 11.8% from 2024, as statewide purchased wine-grape tonnage fell to 1,962,614 tons and the weighted-average grower price declined to $985.61 per ton. These results reflect continued weakness in California’s wine-grape market and underscore the value of an independent benchmark for evaluating long-term market conditions.
Explore the California Wine Market Index™
The CWMI provides a standardized framework for examining long-term changes in California’s wine-grape economy. Explore the methodology, historical research, annual reports, and applications of the Index.
California Wine Index 