California Wine Index

ARE EXPORT MARKETS PROVIDING ENOUGH DEMAND TO OFFSET WEAKER CONDITIONS IN CALIFORNIA’S DOMESTIC WINE MARKET?

Exports provide the international demand perspective on California’s wine market. Because more than 95% of U.S. wine exports come from California, the U.S. export series serves as a strong proxy for California’s exposure to global wine demand, while still requiring clear disclosure that it is not a California-only series.

CURRENT MARKET SIGNAL

U.S. wine export volume fell to 202 million liters in 2025, about 20% below 2024, while export value declined to roughly $830 million. At the same time, California purchased grape volume remained deeply depressed, indicating that international markets are not currently providing enough physical demand to offset weakness elsewhere in the producer market.

SIGNAL: ADDITIONAL PRESSURE

THE TAKEAWAY

Exports are no longer providing the degree of external demand support seen during earlier periods of California wine-market expansion. U.S. wine export volume expanded substantially during the 2000s and remained elevated through the mid-2010s, but the direction subsequently reversed. By 2025, export volume had fallen below its 2000 level.

The 2025 decline intensified this longer-term contraction. While trade disruptions contributed to the latest deterioration, the weakening export-volume trend predates 2025. For CWMI, exports should therefore be viewed as an additional source of market pressure rather than a sufficient offset to weaker domestic conditions.

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

U.S. Wine Export Volume vs. California Grape Purchasing — 2000–2025

Both series are independently indexed to 2000 = 100. U.S. wine export volume is used as a proxy for California’s export-market exposure, while purchased grape volume represents commercial winery buying activity within California.

WHAT THE CHART TELLS US

Export demand and California grape purchasing have followed different paths over much of the historical period. U.S. wine export volume expanded strongly during the 2000s and reached an Export Volume Index of 156.15 in 2015. The subsequent trend reversed, with the index returning to approximately its 2000 baseline by 2022 before falling sharply in 2023–2025.

By 2025, the Export Volume Index had fallen to 68.99 while the Purchased Grape Volume Index stood at 71.55. Both measures were therefore roughly 30% below their respective 2000 levels. Their convergence at depressed levels is significant: international export demand is no longer providing the external volume support that characterized earlier periods of the California wine market.

CWMI INTERPRETATION: Export demand and grape purchasing have converged at historically weak levels.

WHY IT MATTERS

Export markets historically provided California wine producers with an additional outlet beyond the domestic market. When export volume expands, international demand can broaden the market for finished wine and indirectly support production requirements upstream. When exports contract at the same time that domestic conditions weaken, that additional demand channel provides less support to wineries and growers.

The 2025 decline deserves special attention. Trade disruption—particularly the sharp reduction in shipments to Canada—intensified the year’s export contraction. However, CWMI does not interpret 2025 as solely a trade-policy event. Export volume had already been trending downward for several years, indicating that the latest shock occurred within a longer period of weakening international volume.

CWMI INTERPRETATION: The 2025 trade shock accelerated an export-market contraction that was already underway.

WHAT TO WATCH

CWMI will monitor four signals to determine whether international markets are beginning to provide renewed support to California’s wine economy:

• Export Volume — Are physical wine shipments overseas stabilizing, recovering, or continuing to contract?
• Export Value — Is export revenue moving with volume, or are price and product mix causing value and physical demand to diverge?
• Export Volume–Purchased Grape Gap — Are international wine shipments and California grape purchasing moving toward alignment or separating?
• Trade Conditions — Are tariffs, market-access restrictions, exchange rates, or changes in major destination markets materially affecting California’s export opportunity?

A sustained recovery in export volume would indicate that international markets are again contributing incremental physical demand. Rising export value without recovering volume would be a different signal—potentially reflecting higher prices or product mix rather than broader demand for California wine.

METHODOLOGY & SOURCES

U.S. Wine Export Volume

CWMI uses U.S. wine export volume, measured in millions of liters, as a proxy for California’s exposure to international wine demand. Wine Institute reports that more than 95% of U.S. wine exports originate from California. Because the underlying series covers U.S. exports rather than California exports exclusively, CWMI identifies it as a California export-market proxy rather than a California-only measure.

Export Value

Export value measures winery revenue generated by U.S. wine exports. CWMI analyzes export value separately from physical export volume because changes in price, product mix, destination markets, and exchange rates can cause export revenue and physical demand to move differently.

Purchased Grape Volume

Purchased volume represents wine grapes purchased by California processors as reported through the California Grape Crush Report. It provides the upstream commercial-market measure used to compare international wine-market conditions with winery grape purchasing.

Index Construction

Export volume and purchased grape volume are independently indexed to 2000 = 100. The Export Volume–Purchased Grape Gap measures the difference between these indexed series and is used as an analytical comparison; it does not imply a direct causal relationship between exports and grape purchasing.

Primary Sources

Wine Institute, U.S. Wine Export Statistics; California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA), California Grape Crush Reports.

Return to the California Wine Market Index™ for the current statewide market signal, key indicators, and additional Market Perspectives.